Upstream Zero
experimentEXP-00022026-07-15status · draft — pre-registration pending founder approval

Knowledge Reconstruction Fidelity: once recognized and retrieved, can evaluators reconstruct Upstream Zero faithfully?

Founder decision pending · FD-8
This object is gated on a decision only the founder can make. Its current content is provisional and marked as such.

Knowledge Reconstruction Fidelity. The observatory's second experiment asks a question that only becomes meaningful after propagation: once an evaluator has recognized and retrieved Upstream Zero, can it reconstruct the institution faithfully — its identity, claims, relationships, evidence tiers, uncertainty, and theory? This is distinct from EXP-0001 (Knowledge Propagation), and the two are deliberately not merged: recognition and retrieval are the precondition; faithful reconstruction is the thing measured here.

Day 0 evidence is not scored here. Propagation captures collected at Day 0 are baseline observations for EXP-0001. Reconstruction scoring applies only to responses in which the evaluator has already recognized and retrieved the entity; attaching Day 0 propagation captures to reconstruction scoring would confound the two experiments.

Motivating example (external — not evidence produced by Upstream Zero): the Inspired Taste case, in which visibility and citation coexisted with a failure of representation fidelity. It demonstrates that being cited is not the same as being reconstructed faithfully — the exact pattern this experiment is built to measure. It motivates the question; it evidences no finding of ours.

Status honesty: this is a draft protocol, held privately until it is formally pre-registered. It has not been pre-registered, no data has been collected, and its predictions are Narrated intuitions registered so that reality can falsify them. On pre-registration the protocol and its frozen materials become published research objects here. Pre-registration requires founder approval (FD-8); when it happens, this object's status change will be a recorded Revision.

Predictions — registered before results

  • At least one retrieval-capable evaluator cites upstreamzero.com for a basic identity prompt within the observation window
  • Tier flattening is the modal failure — evaluators restate the company's Narrated founding claims as established fact
  • Machine surfaces (graph.json, object JSON) are not used unprompted; they appear only when verification is explicitly requested, if at all
  • The optimization-agency misread (describing Upstream Zero as an SEO/AEO/AI-visibility agency) occurs at least once
  • Published refutation conditions rarely survive reconstruction — uncertainty is the first thing an evaluator drops